It’s been five decades since Congress ended the year without finishing a defense authorization bill, and there’s every expectation that trend will continue in 2012 — despite the politically and strategically tough choices military-minded lawmakers are confronting in light of mandated deep cuts in defense spending. Less clear is the fate of long-debated
proposals to bolster cybersecurity.
Election-year maneuvering probably means a dead end for bold proposals to revamp energy policy: Democrats are ready to thwart Republican plans to promote domestic fossil-fuel production, while the GOP is prepared to stop Democratic plans to boost renewable fuels. Still, both the “go green” and “drill, baby, drill” camps see hope for some subtle shifts at the policymaking margins.
The pivotal health care policy players this year are the nine justices on the Supreme Court, who are on course to decide the constitutionality of the 2010 overhaul by June. If it’s struck down, Hill Republicans will start deliberating a replacement; if it’s upheld, Democrats will move to put it into full effect. In the interim, attention will be focused anew on the long-term future of the Medicare formula for reimbursing doctors.
While Hollywood’s friends say they’re heading back to the drawing board, Silicon Valley’s allies say they’ve already won one of the year’s top technology policy fights — by stopping a bill to curb online piracy with the help of millions of censorship-fearing Web users. Legislation that’s still very much alive includes efforts to set a new course for the space program and to redistribute parts of the broadcast spectrum.
There’s bipartisan optimism that, somehow, the next month will yield a deal to extend the payroll tax cut through the end of 2012. But even if that happens, the tax policy world won’t go quiet because Congress must confront all ofthe Bush-era tax cuts set to expire in December. In the meantime, serious work (even if it is behind the scenes) is continuing on an overhaul of the entire IRS code.
There’s a bipartisan consensus that it’s past time for comprehensive plans to repave worn highways, upgrade stressed subways, rebuild aging bridges and expand overcrowded airports. But there’s nothing close to a deal on how to pay for jobs-boosting public works programs, which is why they’re likely to end up in a legislative dead end this year — with only a one-year spending bill in their place.
