By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 17, 2012, Midnight
The discussion on Monday morning’s “Daily Rundown” on MSNBC has already occurred hundreds of times this cycle and will occur again and again between now and November. Who is Mitt Romney?
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 15, 2012, Midnight
I never include the Keystone State in my list of presidential swing states for November. Am I making a mistake? Possibly.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 10, 2012, Midnight
Little did I know that what I figured was a relatively innocuous column about the Democrats’ problems in North Carolina, where the party will hold its national convention in early September, would generate such a flood of angry attacks.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| May 8, 2012, Midnight
It looks as if there will be no rest for the weary, at least for Democratic House candidates in the South. Heading into November’s elections, except for a handful of races, Democratic opportunities in the region continue to be limited to districts that are heavily populated by minorities.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 30, 2012, Midnight
If national Democratic strategists chose Charlotte, N.C., for the party’s national convention because they liked the facilities, the hotel accommodations or the weather in early September, then I guess I can’t yet quibble with the choice.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 26, 2012, Midnight
I’ve written a couple of columns about presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s potential running mates. Start with some biography, add a dash of analysis and you’ve got an entertaining piece. But I’m not merely a columnist, I’m a political analyst. And the political analyst in me tells me that all of the chatter about Romney’s running mate is a lot of hot air.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 24, 2012, Midnight
It’s really amazing how some people with years of political experience change their opinions about the political landscape to match the latest poll. It’s not that poll results shouldn’t affect our understanding of politics. It’s that too often people behave as if the most recent poll they encounter has enormous predictive value.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 19, 2012, Midnight
The “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight, nasty contests. And it won’t matter that the narrative is wrong. Be prepared.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 17, 2012, Midnight
Three months ago, Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney had a very clear message: President Barack Obama had failed to turn the economy around or create jobs. More recently, the Romney message morphed into one much more about competing visions for the future, about what kind of country this is and will be.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 9, 2012, Midnight
I have found over the years that when a narrative works its way into the collective wisdom, there is no way of changing it. So my goal here is quite modest: to get at least a handful of people to pause, take a deep breath and simply chew over the data a bit before using it to draw unshakable conclusions.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| April 2, 2012, Midnight
Despite all of Mitt Romney's conservative rhetoric, conservatives believe that he is simply pandering to them because he knows that is what he needs to do to lock up the GOP nomination. What’s interesting is that despite his conservative rhetoric, moderates and country club conservatives continue to support his candidacy.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 29, 2012, Midnight
It’s only March, but it seems as if the GOP race for president has been going on for an eternity. Now, however, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has won his party’s nomination and the right to take on President Barack Obama in the fall.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 27, 2012, Midnight
Now that the Club for Growth and other conservatives groups have decided to make a substantial investment in defeating veteran Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, and polling suggests a tightening race, it should be pretty clear even to the Senator’s most loyal supporters that he has a very serious fight on his hands.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 22, 2012, Midnight
Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the last player selected in the NFL draft, a reflection of the long odds he faces in making an NFL roster. Increasingly, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) has become the Mr. Irrelevant in the GOP race for the presidential nomination.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 20, 2012, Midnight
No, the fight for the Republican presidential nomination is not yet over. But if and when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney becomes his party’s standard-bearer, he’ll need to look for the right running mate to help him unify the party and breathe some excitement into the Republican ticket. In other words, he’ll need Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 15, 2012, Midnight
Driving into work on Wednesday morning, listening to parts of “Morning Joe” and “The Daily Rundown” on MSNBC on my radio, I was struck by how much I disagreed with all of the post-primary analysis.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 13, 2012, Midnight
It’s not at all surprising, given the media’s concentration on the fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party between tea party conservatives and the GOP’s more pragmatic conservative wing, that most journalists have completely ignored the ideological fights within the Democratic Party this year.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 8, 2012, Midnight
More than two months after the race for the Republican nomination began in Iowa, the contest remains stuck. That’s both good and bad news for the leader in the Republican race.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 6, 2012, Midnight
There is no single “right” way to handicap a race. You can evaluate where the race is at a particular moment and “rate” what you see. Or, after noting the candidates’ current standing, you can make an informed projection about how the race will play out, changing your rating if and when events don’t play out as expected.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| March 1, 2012, Midnight
Has the Republican race reached a tipping point, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney re-establishing himself as the solid favorite for the Republican nomination and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) slipping awfully close to the “long shot” category? Probably.
